Could Obama Win Louisiana?

One of the reasons I’ve not planned on voting is I figured it would be a formality no matter how I voted, as Louisiana was going McCain. Maybe not.

First, the Shreveport Times endorsed Obama. That amazes me not because the paper is “liberal” or “conservative” but because of how red this area of the state is. I don’t think the Times will change anyone’s mind, but I also don’t think they would endorse a candidate unless they thought most of their readers would agree. They are a business. So maybe my impressions of the area are wrong. And if McCain can’t win in this part of the state, he’s in trouble.

Second, early voting had a huge turnout, with a two to one Democrat advantage over Republicans. That leads the Daily Kingfish (not an objective source, but those numbers are) to say:

If the early voting trends hold steady, Obama will win Louisiana. If Obama receives between 10% and 20% of white voters, assuming the turn-out numbers remain consistent, he will win Louisiana.  Even if one applies the internals of the latest Rasmussen poll in Louisiana (which are, understandably, proprietary and prohibited from being republished without expressed consent), Obama will win Louisiana, provided the trends remain substantially the same. (And remember, that same poll had McCain up by over 15 points).

Simply put, the polls here may be proven to be woefully inaccurate, having dramatically discounted the dynamics of an increased turn-out.

I don’t need to tell you that if McCain can’t win in Louisiana, he’s going to get slaughtered nationally.

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2 Comments on “Could Obama Win Louisiana?”

  1. Maurice Loridans Says:

    I’m dissappointed you would even consider not voting because of polls. Polls are full of assumptions. What kind of example are you setting for your students if you didn’t vote because you (and countless others) stayed home because you assumed it wouldn’t matter.

    I work downtown and was very impressed with the long lines of people waiting patiently to “early vote.” Sort of restores the faith in democracy. Meaux

  2. wheeler Says:

    “What kind of example are you setting for your students”

    that’s the big reason i probably will. the down ticket stuff, too.


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